NYC, fondly called the “Big Apple,” looked forward to 2025, anticipating a record year for tourism tied to the 400th anniversary festivities. Initial hopes centered around welcoming over 67 million tourists, exceeding figures from before the pandemic. However, more recent forecasts from NYC Tourism + Conventions suggest a less optimistic view, projecting about 3 million fewer visitors, notably a 2 million dip in foreign tourists.
The shortfall is largely attributed to the Trump administration’s policies and rhetoric, which could impact New York’s economy, affecting museums, theaters, monuments, and even souvenir vendors.
A Sharp Decline in International Visitors
Although foreign tourists make up about 20% of New York’s total visitor count, they contribute approximately 50% of the tourism spending. As Julie Coker, head of NYC Tourism + Conventions, indicated, the anticipated fall in international arrivals—expected to remain just over 10% below 2019 at about 12 million—equates to a drop exceeding $4 billion in direct expenditures. Ultimately, this poses challenges for businesses supported by tourism, ranging from Broadway shows to neighborhood retailers.
Tourism Economics, the research entity providing the revised estimates, cites “unfriendly rhetoric” from the White House and consequences stemming from the Trump administration’s trade and border policies as the key reasons behind the downturn. Aran Ryan, research director at Tourism Economics, commented that “shifts in sentiment and views of the United States are anticipated to persistently affect travel demand considerably,” emphasizing the wider effects of the current political tone on the country’s reputation internationally.
The “Trump Effect” on Key Source Markets
The slide in foreign tourists is especially noticeable from some of the U.S.’s major trading partners and chief sources of tourists. For example, Canadians are increasingly choosing not to visit the U.S., with forecasts predicting a 20% drop in visits for 2025. In Europe, French travelers seem particularly sensitive to the “Trump effect,” showing an 11% reduction in arrivals during March and April. Conversely, Italian visitors have defied expectations, increasing by 15% over the same period. Overall, Western Europe could see a 5% decline in the number of visitors to the U.S. this year.
While the U.S. dollar has weakened by approximately 8% against other currencies since the beginning of 2025, this has not entirely mitigated the declines. Compared to 2019, exchange rates remain less favorable for European tourists, worsened by increased U.S. inflation over the same period. These financial elements, together with political views, seemingly make the U.S. a somewhat less appealing destination for numerous international travelers.
A Global Anomaly: U.S. Tourism Declines While the World Recovers
Global tourism generally appears to be surpassing 2019 numbers, yet the United States forms an odd exception. Tourism Economics projects that international tourism revenues for the U.S. may fall by roughly $8.5 billion compared to the preceding year, with the World Tourism Council suggesting potential losses up to $12.5 billion. Out of 186 nations, only the U.S. seemingly anticipates a reduction in tourism this year, in contrast to the recovery worldwide.
For New York City, a city considered synonymous with cultural and economic energy, this slump could be particularly damaging. The drop in international tourist traffic is not just about direct income; it could also possibly impact the city’s global draw, which has long been a magnet for tourists seeking memorable experiences, such as Times Square, the Statue of Liberty, and Broadway’s attractions.