Spain anticipates a slight dip in summer tourism revenue, though forecasts still suggest a potentially record-breaking year with a possible 100 million international visitors, perhaps even surpassing France.
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While Spain is closing in on France’s arrival numbers (roughly 94 million versus 100 million), its income and spending per tourist notably exceed that of its neighbor; think 126 billion euros compared to France’s 71 billion. Still, this uninterrupted boom could see a slowdown in summer tourism sales. The main concern? According to Exceltur (an alliance of top tourism businesses), uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade negotiations could put a damper on global consumer spending, even if a record number of tourists are still expected.
This group, comprised of about thirty leading Iberian companies, predicts a 2.7% increase in revenue from hotels, airlines, restaurants, and related tourism ventures for the third quarter – peak season – which contrasts with the 6.3% jump seen during the same period last year. Sales in the second quarter had grown by a respectable 4.5%.
Fewer Americans
That said, Exceltur foresees fewer visitors from Germany and France. Arrivals from the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, and China, however, are expected to keep climbing, albeit at a somewhat slower rate, at least according to the current projections. Oscar Perelli, the alliance’s vice president, pointed out that U.S. tourism has cooled off since late 2024 due to shifting exchange rates; a trend expected to continue throughout the year.
More than 13% of GDP
Exceltur also revised its overall tourism activity forecast for the year, lowering it from 4% growth projected earlier to a still-healthy 3.3%. Even at this adjusted figure, tourism is expected to outpace Spain’s broader economic growth of 2.4%. “Initially, we anticipated a very good year. Now, we anticipate merely a good one,” Perelli remarked. He went on to note that “a general sense of uncertainty has taken a bit of a toll on the confidence of entrepreneurs in the tourism sector.”
The World Travel and Tourism Council, representing the travel industry’s private sector, is still predicting the record-breaking 100 million visitors in 2025. Exceltur estimates total tourism revenue will account for around 13.2% of Spain’s GDP this year. However, this surge in tourism is stirring discontent in some areas of Spain, with a number of recent protests by residents. The inhabitants of the Canary Islands and Barcelona, for example, are expressing concerns about the impact of mass tourism, including its effect on access to affordable housing.