Since early 2022, a series of geopolitical events have hit Western European airlines hard, resulting in at least €13 billion in added operational costs and lost income. These challenges, paired with difficulties recovering from the COVID era and ongoing supply chain problems, have put the industry in a tough spot, obliging carriers to navigate what one CEO called an unprecedented “survival course” with no clear end date.
The Significant Financial Impact
The financial consequences of these crises are considerable. Analyzing internal airline documents, specialized data platforms, and various industry reports, it’s clear European airlines have suffered notable losses due to the unavailability of crucial markets such as Russia and Ukraine, longer flight paths, and disruptions across the Middle East. Keep in mind, these totals don’t include further revenue decreases from cargo transport reductions, passenger rerouting expenses, and localized, short-term events—think of the temporary shutdown of Iraqi airspace, or tensions between India and Pakistan. The industry, still in a state of recovery following the near-bankruptcies during COVID-19, is struggling with already thin margins and tricky operational issues, a situation that potentially jeopardizes its long-term stability.
A Relentless Series of Crises
“For six full years, there hasn’t been any real let-up,” a CEO from a European airline mentioned during the 2025 IATA general assembly. The chronology of these disruptions hasn’t let up: margins decreased in 2019 after a high in 2018, and then came the 2020 pandemic, which kept almost all planes on the ground. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 meant Russian airspace was off-limits, causing European airlines to use lengthier, more expensive routes to get to Asia. By the fall of 2023, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, coupled with unrest in Lebanon, caused disruptions in the Middle East, with intermittent service pauses and outright cancellations cutting into revenues. Plus, periodic flare-ups like skirmishes between India and Pakistan, or exchanges of rockets between Israel and Iran, have added to the general mess.
According to figures from Verisk Maplecroft, areas affected by conflict saw a 65% rise from 2021 to 2024, encompassing 6.15 million square kilometers—that’s about 4.6% of the whole planet. With over 130,000 commercial flights happening each day, including around 30,000 in Europe, says Eurocontrol, these disturbances push airlines to fundamentally change their meticulously optimized routes, which raises their fuel consumption, crew work hours, and overall maintenance costs.
Finnair and the Cost of Longer Routes
Finnair is one of those bearing the brunt of these issues, thanks to its location near Helsinki, which previously positioned it as a central point for flights between Europe and Asia. According to data from Cirium, the closure of Russian airspace has meant that Finnair’s routes to Asia are up to 40% longer, substantially increasing both fuel and labor costs. For instance, Finnair’s route from Helsinki to Shanghai takes, on average, 11 hours and 20 minutes now, compared to the 8 hours and 40 minutes it takes China’s Juneyao Airlines, because they are still allowed to fly over Russia. Other airlines, such as Scandinavian Airlines (+23.5%), LOT Polish Airlines (+21%), not to mention KLM (+17%), also have to deal with lengthier routes, which in turn means they need to hire more crew and burn more fuel. “Obviously, it’s more expensive because you have to work around the Russian air space,” Turkka Kuusisto, Finnair’s CEO, put it simply. “We need four pilots instead of the usual three.”
The competitive ramifications are pretty clear: Chinese airlines, not restricted by the Russian airspace ban, enjoy shorter, more affordable flights, which lets them scoop up more market share and turn Chinese airports into major connection hubs for passengers from Japan and Korea. European carriers, finding it hard to make profits on these routes, have cut back their connections to China, thus capping their growth potential.
Lost Markets: Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East
Since March 2022, European airlines have forfeited close to €10 billion in revenues due to the unavailability of the Russian and Ukrainian markets; a fix doesn’t seem likely by 2025. Way back in 2019, Lufthansa made over €230 million on flights between Germany and Russia, Air France pulled in €150 million, Wizz Air got €270 million from Ukraine, and LOT made around €100 million. These once-busy markets, serving millions of passengers, are effectively off the map now, leaving… The Middle Eastern situation has, broadly speaking, compounded existing losses, adding another €1.4 billion to airline woes. The Israel-Hamas conflict, which began October 7, 2023, and subsequent Lebanese operations, especially, really shook up flights to Tel Aviv and Beirut – previously, pretty good moneymakers. These routes generated €205 million for Alitalia and €200 million for British Airways back in 2019. Intermittent route suspensions and prolonged cancellations have really further strained airline finances.
Operational and Competitive Challenges
These longer routes and market closures do translate into higher costs, definitely. Just an extra hour of flight time for a twin-aisle aircraft costs airlines upwards of €11,000. European airlines, generally speaking, are expected to spend an estimated €2 billion more between March 2022 and December 2025 on routes to China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Japan. Supply chain issues, jet delivery delays, plus engine problems are making things even worse by hampering airlines’ abilities to expand or even just optimize operations.
“This combination of factors? It’s really quite challenging,” noted industry expert Strickland. “European carriers can’t fly over Siberia–the fastest route to Asia–and they’re being forced to take longer, much more tortuous routes around the Middle East. This is adding operational complexity, and increased costs.” Savanthi Syth of Raymond James pointed out that carriers with heavy Asia exposure, like Air France-KLM and Lufthansa, are more impacted compared to those focused on routes intra-Europe, such as IAG’s British Airways and Iberia.
Navigating an Uncertain Future
Airlines are, in most cases, left with little choice but to manage these disruptions as they happen, carefully watching geopolitical developments and adhering to safety advisories. “Sometimes, we have to suspend routes entirely for safety, leading to financial losses,” Strickland clarified. This reactive approach pulls management resources away from long-term planning and any potential innovation, further straining an already challenged sector.
With European airlines facing tight margins, supply chain issues, and a volatile global landscape, their investment potential is compromised. The €13 billion bill from geopolitical crises serves as a stark reminder of vulnerability, and how the industry must be more resilient and adaptable in an era of seemingly endless challenges.